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January 18, 2005

TESTING, TESTING. 1, 2, 3

Rob: We're going to spend a little time catching up on last week's baseball stories that all happened while Jeff was away in Las Vegas. First up, Major League baseball and the Player's Association have agreed on a new steroid testing policy that calls for more random testing and stiffer penalties for offenders. The stiffer penalties are important, because any player who actually gets caught using steroids is probably so dumb, they shouldn't be playing baseball. If you can't be bothered to obtain either untraceable steroids or Human Growth Hormone, which is banned but not tested for, then you're either retarded or have a Pete Rose-level contempt for the game.

Jeff: I'm still astounded that 5-7% of players tested positive last year. I believe someone had to shoot up a gallon of horse steroids every morning to show up positive on that test. This new system isn't great or anything, but it's still better than the old one and about as good as you'll ever get the MLBPA to agree to. And despite what Marvin Miller will tell you, it should be good for them as a whole.

Rob: It's definitely time to put Marvin Miller out to pasture. He sees everything as ground to be won or lost in the war against the owners. And that's fine, that was his job. But times are a little different now, and testing is something that the players actually want for themselves. It's still not going to amount to much. Unless they can find a way to detect undetectable steroids, the players will still be able to use them as much as they ever have. But everyone gets to pretend like baseball's clean now. And then the guys like Giambi, Sheffield and Bonds who happen to get caught through other means will bear the stigma, even though they're not really doing anything different than half of the other players. Still, it's better than nothing, and there's something to be said for willful ignorance if it lets us enjoy home run records a little bit more.

Jeff: The cheaters will always cheat. That's what they do. But if the new system can cut down on the pressure on the other guys who only use the stuff to keep up with the Giambis, then it's a success. I just think the media is overstating the case a bit when they talk about the stigma of being named as a steroid user. Sure, it will hurt star players who already have a public image, but I'm pretty sure Yadier Molina could do coke off the blade of a knife between pitches and nobody would care. Your star has to rise before it can fall.

LOWEBALL OFFER

Rob: Everyone thought that somebody, somewhere was going to be stupid and overpay Derek Lowe. But I don't think anyone thought it was going to be Paul DePodesta and the Dodgers. DePodesta is supposed to be a second-generation Billy Beane, sabermetrically inclined and not easily swayed by Derek Lowe's deceptive won/lost record. But he gave Derek Lowe 4 years at $36 million, a deal that I have to believe was well above any other offer Lowe could have possibly had in hand.

Jeff: The pitching market is so fucked up this year that even this deal isn't that surprising. I'd much rather have Lowe than Eric Milton or Jaret Wright, and those guys got close to the same money Lowe did. He still has his stuff, he never, ever gets hurt, and the only difference in his peripheral stats is a jump in walk rate. If he can keep that down, he'll be a useful pitcher again. It just wasn't ever going to happen with the Red Sox. And maybe not in the American League, either.

Rob: His walk rates aren't the only problem. You're ignoring his DLF/9IP, which is his Derek Lowe Faces per nine innings pitched. While they haven't risen to 2001 levels, when they spiked sharply due to an excessive number of blown saves, they have been increasing alarmingly. The sample sizes are too small to make any definitive judgments on how park factors affect DLF ratios, though it's possible that DePodesta has his own studies that have led him to believe that pitching in Dodger Stadium can significantly reduce Lowe's mental and emotional breakdowns.

Jeff: Oh, I don't think there's any question Dodger Stadium depresses DLF rates. The combination of the relaxing weather, the laid-back, nearly apathetic fans, and the tree-covered hills in the background provides the perfect environment for Lowe to find his happy place.

BALLS OUT

Rob: It was reported a week ago that Doug Mientkiewicz, who was standing on first base for the final out of the 2004 World Series, still has the game ball. It's a good thing that was reported, since I haven't actually once thought about where that ball, or any other World Series clinching ball, might be. Of course, after Mientkiewicz made the unfortunate mistake of joking that he could sell the ball and send his as yet unconceived children to college, he's been portrayed as a greedy, out-of touch athlete.

Mike Tyson: I'll eat his non-existent children!

Jeff: As ridiculous as it is to worry about the ball that nobody's thought about since the World Series ended, the league has to think about putting rules together to deal with ownership of stuff from the games. If idiot fans are willing to pay hundreds of thousands of dollars for everything from balls to scorecards, it won't be long before every player, coach, umpire, broadcast crewmember, and official tears up everything in the ballpark before they leave. My gut says that everything belongs to the league, the proceeds from which should be put into the central fund and divided among the teams. But they'd probably just end up blowing it on Paul Wilsons and Russ Ortizes. It's a tough call.

Rob: I don't know if it's going to be as big a problem after this year. First of all, the Red Sox winning the World Series was one of the bigger sporting events we'll ever see. There's not nearly as much clamor over memorabilia from the Marlin's 2003 championship campaign. And second, Todd McFarlane is broke, significantly reducing the demand for meaningless inanimate objects associated with important baseball games.

Todd McFarlane: Broke?! I have the most valuable piece of memorabilia in existence: Mark McGwire's 70th home run ball. It's the physical embodiment of the most unbreakable record in sports! It can do nothing but increase in value and will soon make me the richest man in the world!

Jeff: Um, Todd, Barry Bonds...

Todd McFarlane: La! La! La! La! La! I can't hear you! All I can hear is the sounds of the ever-rising demand for my ball.

ALL AMERICAN BOY

Rob: As a responsible sports journalist, I should talk about all the games this weekend. But I only saw the AFC games, and I know Jeff slept through at least one of the NFC games, so this is what you get.

Jeff: I was pretty much unconscious for Saturday's games, but I was a little better for Sunday's action. Let's see what we can do.

STEELERS/JETS

Rob: Jeff, I know you missed this game too, and you might hear from people that it was a close, exciting game. But that's simply not true. The Jets stayed in the game because they returned an interception and a punt for touchdowns. I know it doesn't matter how you score, just that you do, but watching Chad Pennington dick around the field didn't give me the impression that the Jets deserved to win this game. And missing two field goals in the last two minutes of regulation doesn't impress me either. Even though the Steelers didn't look brilliant, the right team won here.

Jeff: I can't really get on a guy for missing 43 and 47-yard field goals outside in Pittsburgh in January. I'm not so much into the New York papers, so I don't know if they're destroying Doug Brien for failing in a position where it was unlikely he'd succeed, but I hope not.

Rob: I don't know, dude, you get two chances to win a playoff game in the final two minutes, you gotta make at least one. Sure, the 47 yarder was tough, but he got a do-over and totally shanked it. Maybe watching Adam Vinatieri all these years has spoiled me, but I expect that a guy who only has to do one thing should do it well when it counts.

Jeff: He can either do it or not, whether it counts more at one time or another is irrelevant. A player who only tries his best when the game is on the line isn't a very good teammate. Outside, in January, on the road, an over 40 yard kick is pretty much a coin flip. And as I learned as I got cleaned out on the roulette wheel in Vegas, those 50-50 shots can bite you in the ass with alarming regularity. How could it have come up red six times in a row? It's fucking bullshit.

PATS/COLTS

Rob: Everyone who thought the Colts were going to roll over the Patriots and their depleted secondary, raise your hands. Yeah, I've got mine raised too. Between Peyton Manning's record season, the Patriot's injuries in the secondary, and the Ty Law Rule (no raping the receiver after five yards), I thought the Patriots were toast. Shows what I know. The defense did a damn impressive job keeping the Colts offense to three points.

Peyton Manning: Great, our idiot kicker is the only guy who scored.

Chad Pennington: Hey, that's not so bad.

Rob: And the Colts didn't have an answer for Corey Dillon. Manning did have a pretty good game though. Only one interception, and that one came in garbage time. At this rate of improvement, he should be ready to beat the Patriots in three or four years.

Jeff: The Patriots must have been playing 12 or 13 guys on defense. I can't understand how they were able to pressure Manning on every play, yet not leave a single receiver open downfield.

Peyton Manning: Me either.

Jeff: They're doing something out there that no other team knows how to do or has the personnel to do, but damned if I know what it is. Anyway, I still don't think this provides the conclusive evidence the football journalists claim it does that Tom Brady's better than Peyton Manning. It was still a 12-4 visiting team against a 14-2 home favorite. The only way we can find out who's better for sure is if they switch sides for one game. Or ten. Then they could barnstorm around the country, Peyton's Pats against Brady's Bunch.

The Ghost of Satchel Paige: That's what I'm talking about! I just don't know about that whole football thing. Seems like way too much running and hitting for Ol' Satch.

Rob: Peyton Manning is still clearly better than Tom Brady, but of course, he doesn't ever get to be on the same field as Tom Brady. Of course, the way things usually go for Peyton in Foxboro, Brady would probably intercept a pass and run it back for a touchdown if he ever was on the field with him. The thing that has to suck for Manning is that if this wasn't going to be the year, then when the hell is it going to be? He's the best quarterback in the league with the best offense in the league, and he wasn't even close to doing anything against the Patriots.

STEELERS/PATS PREVIEW

Rob: Remember when the NFC championship game used to be considered the "real Super Bowl?" Well, that's probably what we're looking at in the AFC championship game this year. The Patriots and Steelers are the best two teams still left standing, just as they've been the best two teams in the NFL this year. The Steelers look pretty tough. They have a nasty defense and two All-Pro caliber running backs. They beat the Patriots in their only meeting earlier this year. They're unbeaten at home since, like, forever.

Tedy Bruschi: I see how it is. You're not going to respect us. That's fine, we like it when we're the underdogs.

Rob: Actually, I was just going to say despite all that, picking against the Patriots makes me feel like a dumb sucker.

Jerome Bettis: So, now you're going to disrespect us. When no one else believes in us, we believe in ourselves.

Jeff: It's not that I don't believe it's possible for you guys to win, but my own gut says that the Patriots are like a 60% to 50% favorite.

Jerome Bettis: 60-50? Don't you mean 60-40?

Jeff: No, I'm assuming both teams will be giving 110%.

Jerome Bettis: Now I'm feeling that respect.

Rob: Wow, I don't think any football player in the history of the sport has felt that he's received the adequate amount of respect. But at Back of the Head, we think outside the box. Yup, that's clearly what we're about here, showing respect.